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黃金被壓垮 黃金被壓垮
Gold's Getting Crushed
黃金被壓垮

by Jim Rickards , 2021/06/19
 
Dear Reader,
親愛的讀者,
 
Gold is getting crushed this week. Gold’s tumble began Wednesday after the Fed announced it might be raising interest rates earlier than it previously envisioned.
本週黃金正在被壓垮。在美聯儲宣布可能比之前預期更早地加息之後,黃金的暴跌始於週三。
 
The dollar rallied, and gold fell. Gold’s fall was amplified by technical selling, as gold dropped below $1,800 and approached critical support levels ( $1,770-60).
美元上漲,黃金下跌。隨著黃金跌破 1,800 美元並接近關鍵支撐位(1,770-60 美元),技術性拋售加劇了黃金的下跌。
 
Bad news for gold investors? No, it’s actually good news for gold investors because it offers a great buying opportunity.
黃金投資者的壞消息?不,這對黃金投資者來說實際上是個好消息,因為它提供了一個很好的買入機會。
 
I continually remind gold investors, whether in bullion or mining shares, not to get too euphoric when gold rallies and not to get too depressed on days like today, when the dollar price retreats.
我不斷提醒黃金投資者,無論是黃金還是礦業股,在黃金上漲時不要過於興奮,在像今天這樣的日子裡,當美元價格回落時不要過於沮喪。
 
Gold is still the best form of money and proves valuable to investors over time. This is true despite short-term fluctuations and whether inflation or deflation prevails.
黃金仍然是最好的貨幣形式,隨著時間的推移證明對投資者很有價值。儘管存在短期波動以及通貨膨脹或通貨緊縮盛行,但情況確實如此。
 
The key for investors is to stay focused on the long-term attributes of gold and not get caught up in day-to-day price moves. Gold itself isn’t volatile, but the dollar price of gold is volatile. In other words, the dollar is volatile.
投資者的關鍵是繼續關注黃金的長期屬性,不要被日常的價格波動所困擾。黃金本身並不波動,但黃金的美元價格是波動的。換句話說,美元是波動的。
 
(Currency fluctuations actually create enormous opportunities for investors who understand them. Yesterday, I held a live event, during which I showed viewers how to take advantage of these opportunities for potentially massive gains.
(貨幣波動實際上為了解它們的投資者創造了巨大的機會。昨天,我舉辦了一場現場活動,在此期間我向觀眾展示瞭如何利用這些機會獲得潛在的巨大收益。
 
The dollar price of gold may be volatile, but there’s no reason why your investment outlook needs to be volatile too.
黃金的美元價格可能會波動,但您的投資前景沒有理由也需要波動。
 
That said, it’s worth looking at the long-term prospects for the dollar price of gold. If we’re not going to sweat the short run, we should care about the long run. Read on for my analysis...
也就是說,值得關注以美元計價的黃金價格的長期前景。如果我們不打算在短期內出汗,我們應該關心長期。請繼續閱讀我的分析...
 

The Monetary Case for $15,000 Gold
15,000 美元黃金的貨幣案例

 
I have frequently forecast that gold will reach $15,000 per ounce by 2025 or sooner. That’s not a guess; it’s the result of rigorous analysis.
我經常預測,到 2025 年或更早,黃金將達到每盎司 15,000 美元。這不是猜測;這是嚴格分析的結果。
 
There’s never a guarantee that a particular outcome will prevail, but this gold price forecast is based on the best available tools and models that have proved accurate in many other contexts.
永遠不能保證特定結果會佔上風,但此黃金價格預測基於最佳可用分析工具和預測模型,這些工具和模型已在許多其他情況下證明是準確的。
 
This is a good time to review exactly how that $15,000 price forecast emerges. Today I want to focus on the monetary model.
現在是準確回顧 15,000 美元價格預測是如何出現的好時機。今天我想專注於金融模型。
 
This model analysis begins with a simple question: What is the implied non-deflationary price of gold under a new gold standard? It’s a simple question with a somewhat complicated answer and a tangled history.
這個模型分析從一個簡單的問題開始:在新的金本位制下,黃金的隱含非通貨緊縮價格是多少?這是一個簡單的問題,答案有些複雜,歷史也很糾結。
 
No central banker in the world wants a gold standard. Why would they? Right now, they control the machinery of central bank command currencies (also called fiat money).
世界上沒有中央銀行想要金本位制。他們為什麼要?目前,他們控制著中央銀行指令貨幣(也稱為法定貨幣)的機制。
 
They have no interest in a form of money they can’t control. It took about 60 years, from 1914 to 1974, to drive gold out of the monetary system. No central banker wants to let it back in.
他們對無法控制的金錢形式不感興趣。從 1914 年到 1974 年,大約用了 60 年的時間將黃金趕出貨幣體系。沒有中央銀行願意讓它重新進入。
 
Still, what if they have no choice? What if confidence in command currencies collapses due to some combination of excessive money creation, competition from Bitcoin, extreme levels of dollar debt, a new financial crisis, war or natural disaster?
不過,如果他們別無選擇呢?如果由於過度的貨幣創造、來自比特幣的競爭、美元債務的極端水平、新的金融危機、戰爭或自然災害的某種組合而導致對指令貨幣的信心崩潰怎麼辦?
 
In that case, central bankers may return to gold not because they want to but because they must in order to restore order to the global monetary system.
在這種情況下,中央銀行家們可能不會因為他們想要而重返黃金,而是因為他們必須恢復全球貨幣體系的秩序。
 

Getting the Price Right
獲得正確的價格

 
That scenario begs the question: What is the new dollar price of gold in a system in which dollars are freely exchangeable for gold at a fixed price?
這種情況引出了一個問題:在一個美元可以以固定價格自由兌換黃金的體系中,黃金的新美元價格是多少?
 
If the dollar price is too high, investors will sell gold for dollars and spend freely. Central banks will have to increase the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That’s an inflationary result.
如果美元價格太高,投資者就會以美元賣出黃金,自由消費。中央銀行將不得不增加貨幣供應量以維持均衡。這是通貨膨脹的結果。
 
If the dollar price is too low, investors will line up to redeem dollars for gold and then hoard the gold. Central banks will have to reduce the money supply to maintain equilibrium. That reduces velocity and is deflationary.
如果美元價格太低,投資者就會排隊用美元兌換黃金,然後囤積黃金。中央銀行將不得不減少貨幣供應量以維持均衡。這會降低速度並導致通貨緊縮。
 
Something like the latter case happened in the UK in 1925 when the Exchequer returned to a gold standard at an unrealistically low price. The result was that the UK entered the Great Depression several years ahead of other developed economies.
類似於後一種情況的事情發生在 1925 年的英國,當時英國財政以不切實際的低價恢復了金本位制。結果是英國比其他發達經濟體提前幾年進入大蕭條。
 
Something like the former case happened in the U.S. in 1933 when FDR devalued the dollar against gold. Citizens were not allowed to own gold, so there was no mass redemption of gold. But, other commodity prices rose sharply.
前一種情況發生在 1933 年的美國,當時羅斯福使美元兌黃金貶值。公民不得擁有黃金,因此沒有大規模贖回黃金。但是,其他商品價格大幅上漲。
 
That was the point of the devaluation. The resulting inflation helped lift the U.S. out of deflation and gave the economy a boost from 1933–1936 in the midst of the Great Depression.
這就是貶值的重點。由此產生的通貨膨脹幫助美國擺脫了通貨緊縮,並在 1933 年至 1936 年的大蕭條期間推動了經濟發展。
 
The policy goal obviously is to get the price “just right” and then maintain it with open market operations using gold and dollars. The U.S. is in an ideal position to do this by selling gold from U.S. Treasury reserves, about 8,100 metric tonnes, or buying gold in the open market using freshly printed Fed money.
政策目標顯然是讓價格“恰到好處”,然後通過使用黃金和美元的公開市場操作來維持價格。通過從美國財政部儲備中出售約 8,100 公噸黃金,或使用新印的 “美聯儲貨幣” (*美聯儲貨幣意旨美元) 在公開市場上購買黃金,美國處於實現這一目標的理想位置。
 
The goal would be to maintain the dollar price of gold in a narrow range around the fixed price.
目標是將黃金的美元價格維持在固定價格附近的狹窄範圍內。
 

$1,775 Gold?
$1775 美元黃金

 
What price is just right? This would have to be ascertained on a global basis. Unless all major economies worked together, arbitrage opportunities would arise, resulting in global capital flows that would destabilize exchange rates and capital accounts.
什麼價位剛剛好?這必須在全球範圍內確定。除非所有主要經濟體共同努力,否則會出現套利機會,導致全球資本流動,從而破壞匯率和資本賬戶的穩定。
 
The question is easy to answer, subject to a few assumptions. Global M1 money supply (including the U.S., ECB, Bank of Japan, and the Peoples’ Bank of China, which comprise 64% of global GDP) is $50 trillion. The total amount of official gold in the world is approximately 35,000 metric tonnes.
這個問題很容易回答,但需要做一些假設。全球 M1 貨幣供應量(包括美國、歐洲央行、日本銀行和中國人民銀行,佔全球 GDP 的 64%)為 50 萬億美元。全球官方黃金總量約為 35,000 公噸。
 
One must assume the percentage of gold backing for the money supply needed to maintain confidence.
人們必須假設維持信心所需的貨幣供應的黃金支持百分比。
 
Based on the historical experience of the Bank of England from the end of the Napoleonic Wars to the beginning of the First World War and the Federal Reserve from its creation to the end of the gold cover requirement in 1968, a 40% ratio of bullion to money supply is sufficient.
根據英格蘭銀行從拿破崙戰爭結束到第一次世界大戰開始以及美聯儲從其創建到 1968 年黃金覆蓋要求結束的歷史經驗,只要40%的黃金與貨幣供應量就充足了。
 
Applying the 40% ratio to the $50 trillion money supply means that $20 trillion of gold is required. Applying the $20 trillion valuation to 35,000 metric tonnes yields a price of $17,775 per Troy ounce of gold. That’s the implied non-deflationary equilibrium price of gold in a new global gold standard.
將 40% 的比率應用於50萬億美元的貨幣供應量意味著需要20萬億美元的黃金。將20萬億美元的估值應用於35,000公噸,得出每金衡盎司黃金的價格為17,775 美元。這是新的全球金本位制下黃金的隱含非通貨緊縮均衡價格。
 
Of course, money supplies fluctuate; lately, they’ve been going up sharply, especially in the U.S. Other measures of money supply would yield different results. Exchange rate fluctuations can change dollar equivalents for foreign money supply.
當然,貨幣供應量波動;最近,它們一直在急劇上升,尤其是在美國。其他貨幣供應量指標會產生不同的結果。匯率波動可以改變外國貨幣供應的美元等價物。
 
There's room for debate about whether a 40% backing ratio is too high or too low. Still, my assumptions are moderate based on monetary economics and history. A dollar price of gold of $15,000 per ounce in a new gold standard is not a stretch.
關於 40% 的支持率是過高還是過低存在爭論的餘地。儘管如此,基於貨幣經濟學和歷史,我的假設是溫和的。在新的金本位制下,黃金的美元價格為每盎司 15,000 美元並不誇張。
 
The lesson for investors is to buy gold now. You’ll get more gold for your money at the outset and high percentage returns as gold rallies from a lower base.
給投資者的是現在就買入黃金。一開始,您將獲得更多的黃金,隨著黃金從較低的基數反彈,您將獲得高百分比的回報。
 
Toward the end of the long march to $15,000 per ounce, you'll have bigger dollar gains because you started with more gold. Others will jump on the bandwagon, but you'll already have a comfortable seat.
到每盎司 15,000 美元的長征結束時,您將獲得更大的美元收益,因為您從更多的黃金開始。其他人會跟上潮流,但你已經有了一個舒適的座位。
 
Regards,
 
Jim Rickards
吉姆·里卡茲
 
Jim Rickards is an American lawyer, economist, and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in capital markets on Wall Street. He was the principal negotiator of the rescue of Long-Term Capital.
吉姆·里卡茲(Jim Rickards)是美國律師,經濟學家和投資銀行家,在華爾街的資本市場工作已有35年的經驗。他是拯救長期資本的首席談判代表。
 
 
Shiny黃金白銀交易所
引用: Jim Rickards for Hard Assets Alliance
 
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