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金價未能守住1,700美元,因美國國債收窄2016年以來最差季度 金價未能守住1,700美元,因美國國債收窄2016年以來最差季度
Gold price fails to hold $1,700 as U.S. Treasuries wrap up worst quarter since 2016

Anna Golubova
Tuesday March 30, 2021 13:36
Gold cannot ignore the rising U.S. Treasury yields, which are wrapping up the worst quarter since 2016.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 14-month high on Tuesday, climbing to 1.77%. The sell-off in Treasuries has been led by the reflation trade, which is supported by fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy.

Overall, 10-year bond yields have climbed 81.87 basis points since the start of the year. This marks the biggest surge and worst performance since Q4 2016, when Donald Trump won the presidential election and yields rose 84 basis points.
Gold's performance year-to-date has been weighed down by this headwind. "Another spike in U.S. Treasury yields, along with USD strength, weighed heavily on gold," said ING senior commodities strategist Wenyu Yao.
迄今為止,黃金的年初表現一直受到這種不利因素的拖累。 ING高級商品策略師姚文宇表示:“美國國債收益率再度飆升,加上美元走強,對黃金構成沉重壓力。”

More vaccines and more spending

Accelerating the move in yields this week is the market's anticipation of more stimulus. President Joe Biden is scheduled to speak in Pittsburgh on Wednesday to outline his economic plan, including infrastructure spending and tax hikes. The overall package is expected to exceed $3 trillion.
市場預期本週將出台更多刺激措施,從而加速收益率的走勢。總統拜登(Joe Biden)定於週三在匹茲堡發表演講,概述其經濟計劃,包括基礎設施支出和增稅。整個一攬子計劃預計將超過3萬億美元。
"The treasury markets are cautious ahead of President Biden's spending plans," said Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia regions at StoneX. "The markets had expected asset quarter-end asset-rotation to benefit bonds, but thus far the reverse has developed."
StoneX歐洲,中東和非洲及亞洲地區市場分析主管羅納·奧康奈爾(Rhona O'Connell)說:“在拜登總統的支出計劃之前,財資市場保持謹慎。” “市場原本預計資產季度末的資產輪換將使債券受益,但到目前為止,情況已經逆轉了。”
On top of that, there is Biden's ambitious 90-90 vaccine plan, which sees 90% of U.S. adults as eligible for vaccines by April 19 and 90% of the population living within five miles of a vaccination site.
"[This is] boosting risk appetite and fuelling hopes that the world's largest economy can recover more swiftly than expected," said SP Angel analyst John Meyer.
SP Angel分析師John Meyer表示:“這正在提振風險偏好,並激發了人們對世界最大經濟體復甦速度可能超過預期的希望。”

Gold tumbles

Gold was unable to hold its key support level of $1,700 an ounce on Tuesday. Year-to-date, gold is down 12.5%. This would mark the first quarterly decline since 2018. At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $1,680.30, down 1.86% on the day.
However, it is not just about the yields. The macroeconomic environment that weighs on gold is quite intertwined.
As Treasuries sell off, they push investors towards the safety of the U.S. dollar, which puts additional pressure on gold. The U.S. dollar index reached a four-month high this week on the positive developments in the U.S. At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar index was trading at 93.22.
"It is becoming clear that the mighty dollar is the culprit behind gold's decline. The encouraging developments on the vaccine front in the U.S. have fuelled hopes for a faster U.S. economic recovery, consequently boosting appetite for the greenback. Should the dollar extend gains in the week ahead, this is likely to drag gold prices lower," said FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga.
“很明顯,強大的美元是黃金下跌的罪魁禍首。美國疫苗領域令人鼓舞的事態發展激發了人們對美國更快經濟復甦的希望,從而提振了人們對美元的胃口。如果美元擴大美元的漲幅,未來一周,這可能會拖累金價走低。” FXTM高級研究分析師Lukman Otunuga表示。
The pressure from rising yields is not going away anytime soon, according to TD Securities, which is projecting for the 10-year yields to reach 2% by the year-end.
道明證券(TD Securities)表示,收益率上升的壓力不會很快消失,該公司預計十年期收益率到年底將達到2%。
The only hope for gold is to start diverging from its inverse relationship with yields, said RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis.
RJO期貨高級商品經紀人丹尼爾·帕維洛尼斯(Daniel Pavilonis)表示,黃金的唯一希望是開始擺脫其與收益率的反比關係。
"Maybe we could start to snap free of the correlation that if rates go up, gold has to go down. If we can deviate away from that with the announcement of Biden's new infrastructure package, it will be good for gold," he said. "When we see inflation, it is time to buy gold."
他說:“也許我們可以開始擺脫如果利率上升,黃金就必須下跌的相關性。如果我們可以通過宣布拜登的新基礎設施計劃而偏離黃金價格,那將對黃金有利。” “當我們看到通貨膨脹時,就該購買黃金了。”
By Anna Golubova

引用來源: Kitco News